A Presidency with No Winners Ahead – My Prediction

In the political landscape of 2025, the stakes are higher than they’ve been in recent memory. With economic challenges and societal tensions boiling over, who would want to take on the mantle of presidency? The allure of power is undeniable, yet I feel that whoever steps into the Oval Office next will find themselves in a losing situation, battling uphill against forces much larger than any one administration. I will explain why I think that 2025 and beyond presents a uniquely troubling time for any incoming president, exploring the economic reality of inflation, fiscal policies, and the socio-political climate.

As the dust settles from the whirlwind of the past 8 years, the role of president looms as more of a burden than a blessing. The incoming president will inherit a nation divided, strained by misinformation and economic turmoil which undoubtedly was caused by both sides of the aisle. The challenges are monumental, not least because of the lingering effects of decisions made during the COVID-19 pandemic era. The flood of stimulus money has left deep footprints in the economy, and the question remains—how do we walk it back?

Inflation has been a formidable adversary, surging in the wake of stimulus packages designed to stave off economic collapse during the pandemic. Experts, like Stanford economist John Cochrane, suggest that the root of this inflation lies in the trillions of dollars funneled into the economy without clear repayment plans.

From the PPP, EIDL, to higher wages for the unemployed and stimulus checks to qualifying families.  If your business took a PPP loan and had it forgiven, you contributed to inflation.  This approach, while necessary in the short term, has created a long-term problem where consumers now face rising prices across the board.

The role of monetary policy cannot be understated. In an attempt to combat rising inflation, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes reminiscent of those seen in the 1990s. These measures were aimed at curbing inflation but also resulted in increased costs for mortgages and loans, making it harder for individuals and businesses to borrow and spend. The impact is profound and multifaceted, affecting everything from home ownership to small business growth.  I do believe that J Powell waited too long to raise rates and was too quick to lower them.

With over $5 trillion spent on pandemic relief, we’re now at a crossroads. The decision to release such massive funds was not made lightly, yet the consequences are unavoidable. One man even insisted that his name be signed on the bottom of the checks. This spending spree has arguably inflated the economy artificially, with a lack of sustainable backing or plans for repayment. Critics argue that this fiscal strategy lacked foresight, plunging the nation into a spiraling debt situation. So when someone says that they were “better off” four years ago, consider where we were with stimulus money and an artificially pumped economy.

Political discourse has become increasingly polarized, with misinformation muddying the waters. Many citizens remain misinformed about the economic realities and the causative factors behind inflation. This separation only complicates governance, as leaders must combat not only economic crises but also ideological divides that hinder collective progress.

Fiscal policy remains a contentious topic, with debates centered around taxation, tariffs, spending, and deficit management. The divide is stark between those advocating for increased government spending to stimulate growth and those prioritizing balanced budgets and reduced deficits. Finding common ground is pivotal, yet increasingly elusive, as political factions dig in their heels.  In the end, I feel that it won’t matter.

For the average citizen, the effects of inflation are inescapable. From the grocery store to the gas pump, rising prices have stretched household budgets thin. The next president will undoubtedly address these concerns head-on, trying to find ways to alleviate the financial burden on families while ensuring long-term economic stability, but it is not going to work. This is where the winner becomes the loser.  My feeling is that the wheels are in motion and no matter who gets in, the next few years are going to be tough for those who are already marginalized and those who are just “hanging on”.

Beyond economic policy, the next president faces the daunting task of rebuilding trust in government. The past 8 years have seen a decline in public confidence, fueled by political scandals, perceived inefficiencies, and the handling of the pandemic. Yeah, good luck there.

Get ready for a bumpy ride in the coming years! Brace yourselves Magats & Snowflakes, because my feeling is that tougher times are ahead. If you’re facing financial struggles now, be prepared for even more challenges in the near future. Don’t be fooled by past low interest rates and gas prices strictly due to the pandemic.  If you are unlucky enough to see those ultra low interest rates and ultra low gas prices again, it means that I was right and the economy has stalled considerably. The economic landscape is changing, and ignorance could cost you, no matter who wins.

Posted 11/4/2024 – 11:50pm – I am curious to see how this post ages.

Author: Sal Aniano

This article was written to give you an exclusive look into the thoughts of Sal Aniano. Whether you’re offended, enlightened or entertained, Sal has achieved his goal.